For probabilities, use Fermi numbers, not words
Probability words
Words have fuzzy meanings (Figure 1), but that alone doesnโt mean words are useless.
However, we find serious problems when we examine...
Similar Articles (10 found)
๐ 67.8% similar
Fermi ROI: Fixing the ROI rubric
โDelivering maximum value in minimum timeโ sounds wise, but itโs not exactly a stunning insight. Itโs not like weโre ...
๐ 62.3% similar
Hi, I'm Filip, and I'd like to introduce to you an early version of an uncertainty calculator.
Statistics are scary, but they don't need to be. If you...
๐ 61.2% similar
Stubborn Visionaries & Pigheaded Fools
The puzzle
- Scenario 1 (S1)
- At time (A) you start an AdWords campaign.
At time (B) itโs obviously not workin...
๐ 61.0% similar
Metrics that cannot even be measured in retrospect
Some things cannot be measured, even after months pass and we have all the facts and data and analy...
๐ 59.6% similar
Capturing luck with โorโ instead of โandโ
I won a fake stock market competition in elementary school.
I put all my money in a few penny stocksโthose a...
๐ 59.4% similar
A life-changing challenge guided by Pascalโs Wager
If the Gartner Group issued a Recommendation on Behavior of Fortune 5000 Corporations with Respect ...
๐ 59.4% similar
The Pattern-Seeking Fallacy
What do these have in common?
- โThis pitcher has retired 5 of the last 7 batters.โ
- โWe tried 10 AdWords variants and co...
๐ 58.2% similar
Deciding whether an investment is worthwhile
Whether itโs your career path, which job to take for the next four years, investing in your personal bran...
๐ 58.0% similar
When should a decision be fast, or slow?
We all know that startups should make decisions quickly. Fast decisions leads to rapid action, which accelera...
๐ 57.7% similar
In this article, youโll find more than 50 mental model examples that will make you understand the world and human nature better. So you can become mor...